Holiday 2026: AI Shopping Assistants Are Now Part of the Funnel

The holiday season is officially here, and Adobe’s forecast puts U.S. online spending at a record $275.1 billion from November 1 to December 31, up 6.7% from last year. The headline for marketers, though, isn’t the total. It’s how people are getting to your site.

The numbers to know

• AI referrals up 130%: Adobe expects clicks from generative AI tools to U.S. retail sites to rise 130% year over year this season, peaking at 159% on Thanksgiving.
• Cyber Week is still king: $47.5 billion across the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, with Cyber Monday (Nov. 30) the biggest single day at $15.1 billion.
• Black Friday is growing fastest: $12.9 billion, up 9.2%.
• Mobile keeps climbing: 57.4% of season spend is expected on mobile.
• Buy now, pay later: $21.3 billion in November and December, with 82% of it on mobile.

Why AI referrals matter, even if they’re small

AI-driven visits are still a fraction of total traffic, but they tend to arrive further down the funnel. In an Adobe survey of 5,000 consumers, 77% of people who shopped with AI said it made them more confident in their purchase, and 69% said they were less likely to return items. Someone who has already asked an assistant to compare options shows up ready to decide.

Shoppers are doing their research in a chat window before they ever reach your site.

Where the revenue is shifting

Adobe also expects revenue driven by social media to grow 17% and affiliates and partners 12%, compared with 4% for paid search. Discovery is spreading across more channels, and the brands that show up consistently in each will win.

Your holiday checklist

1. Make sure product pages answer comparison questions clearly. That’s what AI assistants pull from.
2. Check that pricing, availability and shipping cutoffs are accurate everywhere, including feeds and marketplaces.
3. Test your mobile checkout and buy-now-pay-later options before Thanksgiving week.
4. Tag and track AI referral traffic separately in your analytics so you can see what it’s worth.

The season’s biggest days are weeks away. Small fixes now can pay off when the traffic arrives.

Resources

• Adobe 2026 holiday shopping trends and forecast
• Adobe expects AI shopping referrals to more than double, Search Engine Watch
• Holiday Marketing Mixer at Coppertail Brewing (Dec 6)

Sources

• Adobe: U.S. Holiday Shopping Season to Hit Record $275.1 Billion Online (Sept 28, 2026)